Summary
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- Michael Raynor discusses an innovative approach to addressing Scope 3 emissions and a problematic study on bus transit in Canada
- The study recommended hydrogen buses along with battery-electric ones, but had flawed cost projections and timing assumptions
- The study’s mislabeling and inappropriate discounting of future costs significantly impacted the results
- Michael Raynor emphasizes the importance of taking action and trying to address the climate crisis, despite feeling overwhelmed or uncertain about the impact of individual actions
Article
Michael Raynor, a former managing director of sustainability and thought leadership from Deloitte, discussed a innovative approach to addressing Scope 3 emissions that he developed. The discussion also addressed a flawed study recommending hydrogen buses, along with battery-electric buses, for Brampton’s bus decarbonization. The study had errors in assumptions and calculations, leading to a $10 million difference in cost estimates. The discussion highlighted the importance of considering the longevity and cost of battery packs in comparison to fuel cells, as well as the exponential cost reduction of batteries over time.
Raynor emphasized the importance of understanding the underlying technologies and manufacturing processes when assessing the cost reduction potential of fuel cells and batteries. He explained how Wright’s Law applies to battery production and cost reduction, while the cost of hydrogen and fuel cells remains consistent despite manufacturing at scale for long periods. The discussion also touched on the complexity and organizational challenges of running multiple technologies simultaneously, such as maintaining different fleets of buses with distinct technologies.
The conversation critiqued the scenario modeling and decision-making process of organizations like CUTRIC, which failed to consider the complexity and discounting of future benefits in their cost assessments. The flaws in the study led to an underestimation of hydrogen costs and environmental impacts, as well as an overestimation of battery electric bus costs. The conversation concluded with a call for third-party evaluation of CUTRIC’s modeling and governance, as their current approach does not align with sustainable and cost-effective solutions.
The discussion also highlighted the importance of accelerating the deployment of battery electric buses to reduce carbon emissions sooner. Discounting future harms from emissions was deemed inappropriate, as these impacts are just as damaging in the future as they would be in the present. The conversation encouraged individuals to take action towards addressing the climate crisis, emphasizing the regret of not trying over the regret of failure. Overall, the discussion underscored the need for accurate and comprehensive analysis in decision-making processes related to sustainability and innovation.
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