Summary
– Tesla Model 3 and Model Y retain about 64% of their EPA range after three years of use
– Range decline is steep during the first 1,000 days before stabilizing at 64% EPA range mark
– New EVs start at about 70% of their EPA rating in real-world use
– Battery degradation follows an S-shaped curve, with some noticeable degradation when new
– Battery replacement is relatively rare, with about 2.3% of EV batteries being replaced outside of recalls, and most replacements are in older vehicles
Article
In a recent analysis by battery-data firm Recurrent, it was found that a three-year-old Tesla Model 3 or Model Y will likely retain roughly 64% of its EPA rating in real-world driving range. This data was gathered from observations of over 12,000 vehicles on the road, with range tending to decline steeply during the first 1,000 days before stabilizing at the 64% mark. It should be noted that these vehicles typically don’t start at 100% of their EPA rating in real-world use, usually closer to 70%, due to Tesla’s adjustment factor in calculating range numbers.
According to Recurrent, lithium-ion battery degradation tends to follow an S-shaped curve, with some noticeable degradation when a battery is new that levels off before starting to degrade significantly again later in life. This can lead to the need for battery replacement at some point. However, battery degradation is predictable and unlikely to “brick” an EV, with replacement being relatively rare outside of big recalls. Recurrent estimates that only 2.3% of EV batteries have been replaced, with most of those replacements occurring in older vehicles.
There is a parallel between EV battery degradation and the overall depreciation of new cars, with both tending to be steepest in the first three years of ownership. It was also found that Tesla vehicles do not seem to be affected by frequent fast-charging in terms of degradation, although hot weather can have an impact. Cold weather, on the other hand, may not be as tied to battery degradation but can significantly reduce range, depending on the model.
In terms of specific models, Recurrent’s data shows that Tesla Model Y and Model 3 vehicles experience similar rates of range degradation over time. This information can be useful for potential buyers and current owners to understand how their vehicle’s battery health may evolve over the years. With advancements in technology and more data becoming available, it is possible that future EV models will have even better battery performance and longevity.
Overall, the analysis from Recurrent provides valuable insights into the battery degradation of Tesla vehicles and the EV industry as a whole. While there may be some decline in range over time, these findings indicate that battery replacement is rare and predictable. Understanding the factors that contribute to battery degradation, such as age, usage patterns, and weather conditions, can help EV owners take better care of their vehicles and maximize their driving range. As the EV market continues to grow, it will be important for manufacturers to focus on improving battery technology to extend the lifespan and performance of electric vehicles.
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