– California leading US energy transition with massive solar production and booming battery installations
– State to require all passenger vehicles to be electric by 2035, impacting electric grid
– UC Davis researchers find nearly two-thirds of feeder lines don’t have capacity for car charging
– Upgrading to meet rising demand could cost utilities 40 percent of existing grid’s capital cost
– Detailed data on California’s electric grid helps researchers estimate charging needs and capacity
California’s electric grid is at the forefront of the US energy transition, with its significant solar production and increasing battery installations. The state has ambitious goals, requiring all passenger vehicles to be electric by 2035. However, the state’s grid may not be fully equipped to handle the increased demand for electricity that will come with this transition. Researchers at the University of California, Davis, have found that nearly two-thirds of the feeder lines in California do not have the capacity needed for car charging. The cost of upgrading the grid to meet this demand could potentially be as much as 40 percent of the existing capital cost of the grid.
The researchers, Yanning Li and Alan Jenn, have access to detailed data on California’s electric grid, including information on substations, feeder lines, and transformers. This data allows them to estimate where charging will take place and how much electricity will be needed per charge. By utilizing this data, they can project which households will purchase electric vehicles based on socioeconomic factors, ensuring that adoption rates align with the state’s goals. The researchers use the California statewide travel demand model to account for trips and their purposes, helping them determine the amount of charging needed and where it will take place.
The projections show that the existing electric grid in California will fall short of meeting the increasing demand for electricity brought on by the transition to electric vehicles. By 2025, about 7 percent of feeders will experience periods of overload, which will increase to 27 percent by 2030 and 50 percent by 2035. The problem worsens beyond 2045, with two-thirds of the feeders overloaded by that time, when all cars sold in California will be electric. The total electrical demand is estimated to be close to twice the existing grid’s capacity at that point, highlighting the urgent need for grid upgrades.
Despite California’s clear goals for electric vehicles and the detailed data available on the state’s electric grid, there are significant challenges that need to be addressed to ensure a smooth transition. The state must invest in grid upgrades and infrastructure to support the increased demand for electricity from electric vehicles. These challenges underscore the importance of proactive planning and investment in the grid to ensure a sustainable and resilient energy future for California. California’s electric grid will play a crucial role in supporting the state’s transition to electric vehicles and renewable energy sources, and it will require significant investments to meet the growing demand for electricity.
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