Summary
- Tesla analyst Gene Munster named three headwinds affecting company’s growth
- Q3 2024 report showed Tesla produced and delivered record number of vehicles
- Munster interpreted report as return to growth for Tesla
- Three headwinds outlined impacting Tesla’s demand or sales
- Headwinds include macro viewpoint, declining EV subsidies in Europe, and Elon Musk’s political commentary
Article
Tesla analyst Gene Munster highlighted three potential headwinds that could impact Tesla’s return to growth. In the company’s Q3 2024 delivery report, Tesla produced nearly 470,000 vehicles and delivered over 460,000 units, along with deploying 6.9 GWh of energy storage products. Despite facing triple demand headwinds, Munster saw the 7% year-over-year increase in deliveries in September as a positive sign of growth for the company.
Munster outlined the macro view of Tesla, noting that as the auto industry shifts towards electric vehicles (EVs), Tesla’s market share in the US is declining. He predicts that Tesla’s market share will drop to around 40% by 2030, compared to the current 50%, but believes the decline will be less severe than most investors anticipate. Additionally, EV subsidies in Europe, particularly in countries like the UK, Germany, France, and Norway, have decreased by up to 35%, which could impact Tesla’s sales in those regions.
Another potential headwind identified by Munster is Elon Musk’s increased political commentary, which he believes could be affecting Tesla’s sales. As Tesla buyers tend to lean towards the political left, Munster suggests that political dynamics may have reduced deliveries by 5-10k units during the quarter. Without this political influence, he estimates that US numbers would have been 4% higher and overall numbers nearly 2% higher.
Munster’s analysis raises some interesting points about the challenges facing Tesla as it aims to sustain its growth. The evolving landscape of the auto industry towards EVs, declining EV subsidies in key markets, and the potential impact of Elon Musk’s political commentary on sales are all factors that could influence Tesla’s future performance. By identifying these headwinds, Munster provides valuable insights that investors and stakeholders in the company can consider when evaluating its growth prospects.
As Tesla continues to navigate these challenges, it will be important for the company to adapt its strategies and offerings to address the changing market conditions. By monitoring key trends in the industry and consumer behavior, Tesla can position itself for long-term success and sustainable growth. Munster’s analysis serves as a reminder of the complex dynamics at play in the EV market and the need for companies like Tesla to remain agile and responsive to external factors that can impact their performance.
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