Summary
- China aims to have 50% of all cars sold in 2035 to be electric, plug-in hybrid, or hydrogen
- China is ahead of schedule in achieving renewable energy targets, including wind, solar, and hydropower
- China’s nuclear capacity target for 2020 was not met, indicating a lack of progress in the nuclear sector
- Despite significant growth in renewables, China’s nuclear program is far behind in meeting targets
- China’s 2025 nuclear capacity target is not likely to be achieved, raising concerns about the role of nuclear energy in combating climate change
Article
China has set ambitious targets for the adoption of electric vehicles and renewable energy in the coming years. The China Society of Automotive Engineers has outlined a plan for 50% of all cars sold in 2035 to be fully electric, plug-in hybrid, or hydrogen, with 95% being fully electric. These projections suggest that these targets will be met as early as 2025, a decade ahead of schedule. However, the country is falling short of its nuclear capacity target for 2020, indicating a discrepancy in progress between different sectors of decarbonization.
China’s renewable energy targets for 2020 have been exceeded, with wind energy capacity reaching 281 GW, solar power capacity at 253 GW, and hydropower generation at 370 GW, surpassing their respective goals. The nation’s 2025 targets include generating 33% of electricity from renewables, having renewables account for over half of total installed power capacity, and reaching 3.3 trillion kWh of annual power generation from renewables. China is ahead of schedule in meeting these targets, with renewable energy installations already surpassing the 2025 goal.
As of November 2024, China has seen significant growth in wind power installations, solar capacity, and hydropower, with capacity levels far exceeding previous years. However, the country’s nuclear capacity target of 70 GW for 2025 is unlikely to be achieved, as the current trajectory indicates a total capacity of just over 60 GW. Despite being a global leader in various sectors, including renewable energy and infrastructure development, China’s nuclear program has struggled to meet targets and expectations.
The key to successful nuclear energy programs lies in aligning with strategic national goals, maintaining human resources for nuclear engineering competency, deploying a limited number of reactor designs at scale, building multiple reactors quickly to leverage experience, and avoiding local innovation that can hinder economic viability. China’s nuclear program has failed to create all these conditions for success, resulting in slow progress and missed targets.
While China has excelled in other areas such as electric vehicles and renewable energy, its nuclear energy capacity remains a small fraction of total capacity. The country’s target for nuclear energy for 2030 is 120 to 150 GW, but current plans indicate a capacity of only about 88 GW. This discrepancy highlights the challenges of scaling nuclear construction in China and raises doubts about the feasibility of nuclear energy as a solution to climate change.
The difficulty China faces in meeting nuclear energy targets should serve as a wake-up call to proponents of nuclear energy as a climate change solution. The country’s struggles in this sector suggest that the odds of any country successfully scaling nuclear energy in the 21st century are slim. Instead, China’s focus on renewables and electrification of its economy presents a more practical and achievable path towards reducing emissions and combating climate change.
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