Summary
- Hydrogen’s dominance in transportation is based on optimism, not evidence
- Battery electric vehicles and biofuels are more efficient and cost-effective alternatives to hydrogen
- Hydrogen vehicles are outpaced by battery electric vehicles in terms of efficiency and costs
- Hydrogen’s limitations in transportation extend to maritime and aviation sectors
- Hydrogen may find niche applications but will not dominate the future of clean transport
Article
The belief that hydrogen will dominate the transportation sector is based on optimism rather than evidence, as hydrogen is being outpaced by battery electric vehicles and advanced biofuels in terms of efficiency and cost-effectiveness. Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (FCEVs) are limited by energy inefficiency, with only 30 to 40 percent well-to-wheel efficiency compared to 70 to 90 percent for battery electric vehicles (BEVs). Furthermore, BEVs are significantly more cost-effective and energy-efficient than hydrogen-powered vehicles, leading to their potential dominance in the road sector by 2035.
The deployment of battery electric passenger vehicles, buses, and trucks significantly outnumber hydrogen vehicles in cities across Europe, Asia, and North America, driven by falling battery prices, robust charging networks, and superior operating economics. Hydrogen trucks and buses remain limited to pilot programs and niche demonstrations due to their low efficiency and high fueling costs. Additionally, in the maritime sector, hydrogen-based fuels are found to be significantly more expensive and less efficient than alternatives like ammonia, battery-electric propulsion, and biofuels.
In the aviation sector, hydrogen’s volumetric energy density is too low to be practical in large aircraft without radical airframe redesign, making sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs) a more feasible and immediate alternative for long-haul decarbonization. The International Council on Clean Transportation concluded that hydrogen-powered planes would require major technological breakthroughs and cryogenic fuel storage, limiting their viability. As a result, hydrogen is being overshadowed by battery electric vehicles in light-duty transport and urban logistics, while biofuels and SAFs are dominating longer-haul shipping and aviation.
Proponents of hydrogen in transport often fall into the logical fallacy of the appeal to possibility, assuming that just because something is technically possible, it is economically rational and systemically desirable. However, mounting evidence indicates that batteries and biofuels are the present and future of clean transport, with hydrogen finding niche applications in remote rail lines or backup power for critical transport services. Battery electric vehicles are leading in light-duty transport, while biofuels and SAFs are dominating longer-haul shipping and aviation, relegating hydrogen to the margins as a detour rather than a bridge to the future of mobility.
In conclusion, the claim that hydrogen will dominate transportation is not supported by evidence, as batteries and biofuels are proving to be more efficient, adaptable, and supported by existing or easily developed infrastructure. Hydrogen’s limitations in terms of energy inefficiency, high costs, and infrastructure requirements suggest that it will not define the future of mobility. As technologies like battery electric vehicles and biofuels continue to advance and gain market traction, hydrogen is becoming increasingly sidelined in the clean transport sector.
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