Summary
– EV sales expected to reach one in five new car sales globally in 2024
– Concerns about a potential EV sales slump exist due to tight profit margins and volatile battery prices
– Record 2023 EV sales show market share at 18%, with most sales in China, followed by Europe and the U.S.
– Over 20 major automakers have set electrification targets, with investment in battery manufacturing capacity already in place
– Consensus among analysts is that EVs will continue to gain market share in 2024, with predictions of significant growth in the luxury vehicle and U.S. markets
Article
The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that electric vehicle (EV) sales will continue to grow in 2024, reaching around one in five new car sales globally and 11% of the U.S. market. Despite concerns about tight profit margins, volatile battery raw material prices, and the phaseout of incentives in certain countries, data shows that EV sales are still increasing. Falling battery prices, EV-friendly policies, and increased sales in emerging markets are contributing to this growth.
The record-breaking 2023 EV sales have boosted market share to 18%, up from 14% in 2022. China accounts for 60% of EV sales, followed by Europe at 25% and the U.S. at 10%. Analysts predict that growth in other markets could further drive EV sales. Over 20 major automakers, representing 90% of global car sales in 2023, have set electrification targets. Sufficient investment in battery manufacturing capacity has already been made to meet these targets, laying the groundwork for broader EV adoption.
With stricter emissions regulations in place in many countries, analysts believe that EVs could make up every other car sold globally by 2035. Bloomberg’s earlier prediction for 2024 estimated 1.9 million EV sales in the U.S., accounting for 13% of the new-car market. The U.S. luxury vehicle market already has over a third of EVs, according to the Energy Information Administration. However, EV adoption in the U.S. is becoming more polarized by state, with variations in adoption rates.
While U.S. EV sales are growing, there is also an increase in the size of the gasoline fleet, potentially offsetting emissions reductions from EVs. The IEA analysis aligns with the consensus of other analysts’ predictions that EVs will continue to gain market share in 2024. AsEV-friendly policies and falling battery prices continue to support growth, the outlook for the future of EV sales remains positive. In conclusion, the shift towards electric vehicles is expected to continue to accelerate in the coming years, with EVs becoming a significant portion of the global automotive market.
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