The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that over 1 in 5 cars sold globally in 2024 will be electric, a significant increase in demand that is expected to continue growing over the next decade. The surge in electric vehicle (EV) sales is anticipated to reshape the global auto industry and lead to a substantial reduction in oil consumption for road transport. The latest edition of the IEA’s Global EV Outlook indicates that global EV sales are projected to reach around 17 million by the end of 2024, with sales in Q1 growing by about 25% year-over-year. This growth is seen as a continuation of the momentum from previous years, with the number of EVs sold globally in Q1 2024 nearly matching the total sales for the entire year of 2020.
In 2024, China is expected to lead the way in electric car sales, with projections of around 10 million EVs sold, representing approximately 45% of all car sales in the country. In the US, about 1 in 9 cars sold are anticipated to be electric, while in Europe, EVs are forecasted to represent about 1 in 4 cars sold. This growth follows a record-breaking year in 2023, where global electric car sales increased by 35% to nearly 14 million. While demand for EVs remains concentrated in key markets like China, Europe, and the US, growth is also picking up in emerging markets such as Vietnam and Thailand, where electric cars accounted for a significant portion of all vehicles sold.
IEA executive director Fatih Birol highlights the ongoing momentum behind electric cars, noting that the global EV revolution is entering a new phase of growth. The wave of investment in battery manufacturing suggests that the EV supply chain is evolving to meet automakers’ ambitious expansion plans. As a result, the share of EVs on the roads is expected to continue climbing rapidly, with projections indicating that by 2030, approximately 1 in 3 cars in China, and nearly 1 in 5 in both the US and European Union, will be electric. This shift will have major implications for both the auto industry and the energy sector.
The IEA’s report emphasizes the importance of ensuring that public charging infrastructure keeps pace with the growing number of EVs on the road. While the number of public charging points increased by 40% in 2023 compared to the previous year, the IEA suggests that charging networks will need to expand sixfold by 2035 to meet the level of EV deployment aligned with government commitments. Policy support and careful planning are essential to ensure that increased demand for electricity from charging does not strain grids. In addition, improving battery technologies and intensifying market competition are expected to drive down EV prices, making them more accessible to consumers.
In terms of affordability, the report notes that in China, over 60% of electric cars sold in 2023 were already cheaper to buy than gas cars. While gas cars remained more affordable on average in the US and Europe, growing electric car exports from Chinese automakers, who accounted for more than half of all electric car sales in 2023, could contribute to lowering purchase prices globally. The report underscores the importance of balancing EV deployment with adequate charging infrastructure and grid capacity to support the transition to electric transport. As the momentum behind electric cars continues to grow, the IEA’s projections suggest that the future of the auto industry and energy sector will be increasingly shaped by the ongoing shift towards electric mobility.
