Summary
- Laurent Segalen and Gerard Reid have an annual predictions episode where they rank previous predictions and make new ones
- Michael Barnard joined them in making predictions for the year with a transcript of their conversation
- Predictions included topics like Stellantis outsourcing EV production, politics affecting the energy transition, oversupply in energy-related industries, and governance of transmission and interconnection
- Other predictions covered the decline of oil production in the US, a bloodbath in hydrogen for energy and transportation, record installations of clean energy technologies, and the disappearance of ESG in financial products
- The trio discussed various aspects of the predictions, their accuracy, and potential implications for the future.
Article
Laurent Segalen, Gerard Reid, and Michael Barnard recently had their annual predictions episode where they discussed their predictions from the previous year and made new ones. The first prediction they reviewed was about Stellantis outsourcing EV production in China, which turned out to be accurate with joint ventures and battery gigafactories established. The next prediction was about the impact of the 2024 elections on the energy transition, with mixed opinions on whether it would derail progress. The prediction of an oversupply of energy-related products was also discussed, noting the decline in oil and gas prices and the surge in renewable energy technologies.
Another prediction focused on stronger top-down governance of transmission and interconnection in the EU, which is seen as accurate with the EU emphasizing the need for improved electricity grid infrastructure planning. The discussion then moved to the return of clean energy shares, with some discrepancies in the performance of different clean energy sectors. The final prediction from the previous year was about China gaining a massive international market share in wind and EVs, which was mostly accurate given China’s dominance in these sectors.
The participants then made their predictions for the upcoming year. Michael predicted a decline in oil production in the US due to shale oil depletion, Gerard predicted oil prices to hit $40 per barrel, and Laurent predicted geopolitical changes, leading to a more innovative and better world. Michael also predicted a bloodbath in the hydrogen sector, Gerard predicted record installations of clean energy technologies, and Laurent predicted the disappearance of ESG, climate, and carbon labels in financial products.
Overall, the discussion highlighted the potential shifts in the energy and transportation sectors, including the impact of geopolitical changes, renewable energy growth, and the future of financial products related to sustainability. While the participants had varying opinions on certain predictions, they all agreed on the importance of addressing climate change and transitioning to cleaner energy sources. The predictions serve as a guide for potential trends and developments in the cleantech industry in the coming year.
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