Summary
- Analysts do not expect Tesla to beat its 2023 annual delivery figures
- Analysts expect Tesla to deliver 506,763 vehicles in Q4 2024
- The consensus includes 476,398 Model 3 and Model Y deliveries and 31,755 deliveries of other models
- Tesla would need to deliver about 515,000 vehicles in Q4 to match 2023 delivery numbers
- Despite potential shortfall in deliveries, Tesla’s overall performance remains positive with growth in Tesla Energy and FSD system development.
Article
According to a recently released company-compiled consensus from sell-side analysts, Tesla is not expected to exceed its annual delivery figures from 2023. Analysts are predicting that Tesla will post 506,763 vehicle deliveries for Q4 2024, with 476,398 deliveries comprising Model 3 and Model Y vehicles, and 31,755 deliveries of other models. This would result in a total of 1,801,709 vehicle deliveries for the year 2024.
The analyst consensus for Tesla’s Q4 2024 delivery results was provided by a number of firms including Daiwa, DB, Wedbush, Cowen, and others. Comparing these projections to the company’s deliveries in Q4 2023, where Tesla reported 484,507 vehicle deliveries, with 461,538 being Model 3 and Model Y vehicles, and 22,969 units of other models. This led to a total of 1,808,581 vehicle deliveries globally in the full year 2023.
In order for Tesla to match its 2023 delivery numbers, the company would need to deliver around 515,000 vehicles this fourth quarter. This would require Tesla to achieve its highest-ever delivery numbers in a quarter. Despite this challenge, Tesla’s overall performance does not appear as bleak as some skeptics may suggest, as the company has diversified beyond just its automotive division. Tesla Energy is experiencing rapid growth, and its work on the Full Self-Driving (FSD) system could potentially lead to a software licensing business in the future.
Tesla’s business evolution into other sectors beyond automotive is evident, with the company’s focus on Tesla Energy and potential software licensing opportunities through its FSD system. While analysts are not expecting Tesla to surpass its 2023 delivery figures, the company’s overall performance remains strong. With Tesla’s continued growth and diversification, its future trajectory appears promising and poised for further success.
It is important to note that Tesla’s performance is not solely determined by its vehicle deliveries, as the company’s expansion into new areas such as Tesla Energy and software licensing through its FSD system indicate a growing and dynamic business model. Despite the projections for Q4 2024 not exceeding the figures from 2023, Tesla’s overall presence and impact in the market continue to be robust and promising for future growth and innovation. Contact Tesla with news tips by sending a message to simon@teslarati.com.
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