Summary
- Robotaxis will replace regular taxis and could potentially take market share away from public transportation
- Transportation as a Service (TAAS) is expected to reduce vehicle production and increase total miles driven
- Factors such as cost, utility, and personal benefits influence people’s transportation choices
- BEVs are expected to last longer than internal combustion vehicles, leading to a shift towards electric vehicles
- The adoption of TAAS could impact the world’s automobile production and change the way people travel on roads
Article
In Part 1 of the series, the impact of robotaxis on the regular taxi market was discussed, with an analysis of the potential outcomes. Moving on to Part 2, the focus shifted to Transportation as a Service (TAAS) and its impact on the general automotive market and transportation landscape. Tony Seba’s 2017 RethinkX report suggested a significant reduction in vehicle production and an increase in vehicle miles driven, indicating a shift towards TAAS. The questions posed in Part 2 revolved around the adoption of TAAS, the potential acceleration towards electric vehicles (BEVs), and the implications on the automotive market and roads once BEVs and TAAS are fully implemented.
Understanding the factors that drive people to choose cars, buses, or taxis involves considering cost, utility, and personal benefits. Analysis revealed the lifetime cost per mile for different vehicle types, with a comparison of various costs included in vehicle ownership. The data pointed to the high costs faced by low-mileage drivers in owning a vehicle compared to the potential cost savings with TAAS, particularly robotaxis. The analysis highlighted the impact of vehicle longevity on cost per mile, with a shift towards longer-lasting BEVs and robotaxis predicted.
The breakdown of pros and cons for different transportation options, including personal vehicles, buses, taxis, and BEV robotaxis, illustrated the varying factors that influence people’s choices. The analysis revealed that robotaxis have the potential to outcompete regular taxis and attract users from public transportation due to their cost-effectiveness, utility, and personal benefits. Predictions indicated a shift towards BEVs and the adoption of TAAS by a significant portion of private vehicle owners, especially low-mileage drivers.
Implications for the world automotive production market were discussed, with projections indicating a decrease in vehicle demand and a shift towards robotaxis and high-mileage personal vehicles. The analysis suggested that the adoption of TAAS could lead to significant changes in the transportation system, impacting automobile manufacturers and the overall automotive market. The article concluded by emphasizing the trend towards TAAS and its potential to revolutionize the way people commute, echoing predictions made by Tony Seba and RethinkX in their reports.
Read the full article here
