Summary
- Car industry demanding flexibilities that could result in 2.6 million fewer BEV sales
- Analysis shows impact of flexibilities proposed by ACEA for EU’s 2025 car CO2 target
- Phase-in flexibility could result in 1.8 million fewer BEV sales in 2025-2027
- 5-year average compliance period could result in up to 2.6 million fewer BEV sales in 2025-2027
- European Commission should reject attempts to weaken car CO2 regulation and uphold 2025 target
Article
In a recent analysis by T&E, it has been found that the car industry’s demand for flexibilities in the EU’s 2025 car CO2 target could potentially result in up to 2.6 million fewer BEV sales. The proposed flexibilities include a 90% phase-in and a 5-year average compliance period, which would significantly reduce the ambition level of the 2025 target and allow carmakers to keep EV sales at similar levels to 2024, or even lower for some manufacturers. This could lead to stagnation and the deprivation of more affordable EV options for consumers.
The 90% phase-in of the target in 2025 allows carmakers to exclude 10% of the most polluting vehicles from the emissions average, effectively reducing the emissions reduction target from 15% to just 7%. This could result in a significant increase in CO2 emissions, as carmakers may focus on selling more hybrids instead of increasing BEV sales. Additionally, the introduction of this flexibility could lead to a cumulative loss of up to 1.8 million BEV sales in 2025–2027 compared to the maximum BEV potential scenario, with additional ICEs sold emitting 60 MtCO2 over their lifetime.
On the other hand, the multi-year compliance allows carmakers to average CO2 emissions over the period 2025–2029, resulting in a slower EV adoption during this time frame. The 2-year delay in BEV ramp-up could lead to the loss of up to 2.6 million European BEV sales over the 2025–2027 period compared to the maximum potential scenario. Although carmakers are expected to overcomply with the targets in 2028–2029 in anticipation of the 2030 target requiring more than 50% BEV sales, the impact of this overcompliance remains uncertain.
T&E suggests that the European Commission should reject any attempt to weaken the car CO2 regulation and should uphold the 2025 target to ensure a smoother transition towards EV adoption while maintaining climate goals. The analysis highlights the potential negative impact of the proposed flexibilities on the EV market and emphasizes the importance of supporting EV demand through regulatory measures. By focusing on measures that incentivize carmakers to increase their EV sales and meet the emissions targets, the integrity of the climate goals can be preserved.
Overall, the analysis underscores the critical importance of maintaining the ambition level of the 2025 car CO2 target and resisting any attempts to weaken the regulation. By encouraging carmakers to meet their targets through increased EV sales and emission reductions, the EU can drive the transition towards a cleaner transportation sector and support the growth of affordable and accessible electric vehicles for consumers. The findings of the analysis serve as a reminder of the challenges and opportunities in the transition to a cleaner, more sustainable automotive industry.
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