Summary
- Hydrogen buses are found to be more expensive and less reliable than battery electric buses
- Transit agencies are vulnerable to accepting persuasive narratives about emerging technologies due to lack of expertise
- Battery electric buses already offer sufficient range for urban routes and are rapidly improving
- Transit agencies have been misled by credible organizations about the real-world costs of hydrogen buses
- The Canadian Urban Transit Research and Innovation Consortium (CUTRIC) is biased toward hydrogen, causing conflict of interest issues
Article
In recent months, there has been a trend among transit agencies to try hydrogen bus trials only to realize that battery electric buses are more cost-effective and reliable. Many agencies are questioning why the hydrogen bus market is not completely dead by now. One reason for this is that transit agencies tend to make decisions based on intuition rather than deep analysis, leading them to accept persuasive narratives without critical scrutiny. Agencies also focus on day-to-day details and lack expertise in technical innovation, making them vulnerable to misleading stories about emerging technologies.
Transit agencies often overlook the bigger picture when evaluating new technologies, focusing on immediate operational challenges rather than broader strategic choices. Many agencies have not made significant shifts in their bus fleet since replacing trolley buses with diesel models decades ago. This limited focus leads to a cognitive bias known as “what you see is all there is,” where agencies are aware of familiar problems but lack awareness of global trends and advancements in other transit agencies. To future-proof transit, agencies must move past intuition and local crises and adopt evidence-driven, strategic thinking.
One misleading narrative that transit agencies often hear is that hydrogen buses are a simple drop-in replacement for diesel buses. This oversimplification taps into agencies’ desire for minimal disruption, leading them to overlook the costly and complex infrastructure changes required for hydrogen buses. Additionally, transit managers are often swayed by the promise of impressive range in hydrogen fuel cell buses, despite the fact that most urban routes do not require such extreme ranges. Battery electric buses already offer sufficient range for many urban routes, with technology improving rapidly.
Transit managers also face challenges during winter with hydrogen buses, as heating with hydrogen waste heat is expensive compared to diesel buses. Battery electric buses, on the other hand, face range issues in winter when heating directly impacts operational mileage. However, advancements in battery technology, such as insulation and heat pumps, are addressing these challenges. Despite some failures from electric bus manufacturers, the overall success of battery electric buses globally is often overshadowed by the relatively rare problems.
Transit agencies have been misled by optimistic projections from reputable organizations about the costs of hydrogen electrolyzers and green hydrogen. These projections have consistently understated the real-world costs of hydrogen buses, leading agencies to believe that they would soon be economically competitive with battery electric buses. To avoid falling into this trap, major forecasting institutions need to recalibrate their forecasts based on actual data and communicate realistic costs transparently. Transit agencies must also resist persuasive lobbying narratives and focus on proven, cost-effective solutions like battery electric buses.
In conclusion, transit agencies repeatedly make the same mistakes when evaluating alternative bus technologies due to cognitive biases and institutional blind spots. Anchored to overly optimistic cost projections about hydrogen buses, agencies fail to adjust their expectations as real-world costs become clear. Moving forward, agencies must adopt evidence-driven, strategic thinking, question misleading narratives, and prioritize cost-effective solutions like battery electric buses.
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