Summary
- Wolfe Research predicts Tesla Q3 2024 deliveries to be around 460,000, in line with the consensus estimate
- The firm expects Tesla to see 4% growth from Q2 and a 6% year-over-year increase
- Barclays predicts a rise of 8% year-over-year with 470,000 deliveries
- Concerns about Tesla’s profitability due to price cuts and incentives introduced in Q3
- Tesla delivered 827,766 units so far, with good performance in Q1 and Q2 2024
Article
Wolfe Research predicts that Tesla will deliver around 460,000 vehicles in the third quarter of 2024, which aligns with the consensus estimate of 461,000 deliveries. The firm expects a 4% growth from the previous quarter and a 6% year-over-year increase. Despite relatively good delivery numbers, the firm is concerned about Tesla’s profitability, citing concerns about pricing incentives impacting margins.
In terms of geographic performance, Wolfe Research believes that Tesla will see a flat delivery performance in North America while Tesla China is predicted to contribute record-breaking deliveries of 172,000 units. This strong performance in China is expected to compensate for lower volumes in Europe. Another firm, Barclays, predicts an 8% year-over-year increase in deliveries for Tesla in Q3, with the bank anticipating that Tesla will beat consensus estimates and deliver 470,000 units.
In the second quarter of 2024, Tesla’s auto gross margins, excluding credits, fell to 14.6% due to price cuts on the Model Y that outpaced cost reductions. For Q3, Tesla introduced additional incentives, particularly in the U.S., which could lead to a pricing headwind of $4,500 per vehicle. Wolfe Research estimates that this could lower global revenue per unit by $550, with total price reductions averaging $1,000 per vehicle. These factors contribute to the firm’s concerns about Tesla’s profitability despite strong delivery numbers.
As of the current quarter, Tesla has delivered a total of 827,766 units, with 386,810 units delivered in the first quarter and 443,956 vehicles delivered in Q2 2024. The company’s overall performance reflects steady growth and an increasing market presence. The predictions and concerns raised by Wolfe Research and other firms highlight the complex dynamics at play in Tesla’s operations and the challenges it faces in maintaining profitability while increasing deliveries and market share.
For more information or tips related to Tesla’s performance and future outlook, individuals can contact the writer at the provided email address or through a specified contact method. The insights and predictions offered by various research firms shed light on the factors influencing Tesla’s delivery numbers, profitability, and overall performance in the automotive market. As Tesla continues to expand its production and delivery capabilities, navigating the balance between volume growth and financial sustainability remains a key challenge for the company.
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